European Commission expected to trigger Article 7 against Poland

The European Commission meets today to discuss launching Article 7 against Poland’s government for violating the EU’s commitment to democracy and human rights, European media widely report today. First Vice-President Timmermans and Commissioner Oettinger stated that proceedings under Article 7 are becoming increasingly likely. President Juncker is, however, reluctant to take this step due to the risk of inadvertently demonstrating the powerlessness of the EU if the proceedings fail, Münchner Merkur reports. According to the Vice-President of the European Parliament Ryszard Czarnecki (ECR/Law and Justice), the Commission will want to forward the matter to the Council, in order not to take responsibility for the fall in case of a possible political loss, Gazeta Polska Codziennie reports.

Rzeczpospolita moreover indicates that Commissioner Bieńkowska is rumoured to have wanted to start a dialogue with Poland but, in general, the Commission believes that the Polish government actually hopes for the launch of Article 7, as it would boost its political popularity. According to Polish TVP Info, the three most likely outcomes of the meeting are as follows: First Vice-President Frans Timmermans announces the triggering of Article 7, the Commission forwards the matter to the Court of Justice of the European Union or the Commission only issues recommendations on the legislative process of the judiciary laws in Poland.

According to MEP Kathleen Van Brempt (S&D), the European Parliament thinks “there is a serious risk for the Polish justice’s independence” and MEP Guy Verhofstadt (ALDE) stated that article 7 “is a necessary measure to secure the fundamental principles of the European rule of law,” Belgian media report.

Among official reactions in Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland would like to start a dialogue with the Commission, but the government would also like to reform the justice system, Dziennik Gazeta Prawna indicates. Prime Minister Morawiecki’s claim, that the Polish government wants to remove remnants of the communist regime from the ranks of judges, is undermined by the fact that some judges are to be replaced by former members of the communist party, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung indicates. In Poland, activists are fighting an intense battle to stop the Polish government from undermining the constitutional state, reports Berlingske. Activists like Ms Kotula, however, would prefer the EU to stay out of the affair, as it would be better if the government party, PiS, was voted out of the government at the next election.

In Münchner Merkur, Natalie Skrzypczak notes that the EU beginning proceedings that could lead to a loss of veto rights for Poland would be an “unprecedented escalation.” In order to initiate the procedure, 22 EU Member States have to support Brussels, France 2 specifies. Unanimity of the EU27 is, however, required to remove Poland’s voting right in the Council, which is almost impossible, mainly because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has always said he would veto such a decision. According to Charlotte Flindt Pedersen, CEO of the Danish Foreign Policy Society, there might be a need for a “Commissioner for Democracy” in the EU, Danish Jyllands-Posten notes.

In Die Welt, Hannelore Crolly writes that proceedings against Poland would not be an attack, but a defence of European values. Hannelore Crolly however believes it is highly unlikely that the European Commission will use this option, because it has nothing to follow up on the symbolic threat. Slovenian Delo also argues that is difficult to imagine sanctions going all the way, but perhaps the most significant thing has already happened: Poland has become a marginal state, less and less relevant in European processes. NRC Next remarks that there are more countries in Europe with a far from ideal rule of law. Economic and political intertwining of western and middle Europe and the ideological ties between leaders like Mr Orbán with conservatives elsewhere in Europe make the situation more difficult. A multi-speed Europe could be a solution, the Dutch newspaper argues.

Meanwhile, The Daily Telegraph reports that British Prime Minister May is said to have been caught up in Poland’s row with the European Union, as European Parliament Brexit Chief, Guy Verhofstadt called on her to condemn Poland’s autocratic government as a “test” of the UK’s commitment to the EU’s liberal, democratic values and the future relationship with Europe. The threat to make Poland a pariah in the EU family comes at a highly embarrassing moment for Mrs May, who is due to visit Warsaw tomorrow as part of a diplomatic charm offensive that has been launched by Britain towards Poland since Brexit.